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Advanced NFL Stats: Skins @ Cowboys

Rex Grossman has been far below average in obvious passing situations, according to Brian Burke of Advanced NFL Stats. Photo by Keith Allison at Wikimedia Commons.

Brian Burke from Advanced NFL Stats is back with his weekly stat-laden column at the Washington Post

Burke's nuggets this week:

  • DeAngelo Hall isn't very good. He's well-below average for a starting corner with just 2 passes defensed. He's tops among Washington's CBs in tackles, but only 2 are "successes" (meaning that he prevented the opposing offense from increasing their odds of scoring or reaching a first down. The Skins need better play from Hall. Washington's best corner so far this season: Josh Wilson.
  • Washington has done a good job of not taking penalties. Teams with a penalty rate as low as Washington's win an extra half game per season, according to Burke.
  • Rex Grossman struggles when in obvious passing situations -- third down or in a two-minute drill. In those situations, Burke characterizes Grossman as "far below average." Burke's suggestion: run play action on 1st and 2nd downs, and run on 3rd down when the defense isn't expecting it.
  • The Redskins run defense is 2nd worst in the league according to Burke's "Success Rate" measure. Opposing offenses are increasing their chances of scoring or getting a first down on nearly half of their running plays -- league average is just 42%. According to Burke, this "success rate" stat correlates with wins better than any other running stat. On offense, Washington is average in its running game.
  • In what might be a good sign for the Redskins this week, Rams QB Sam Bradford is struggling in his 2nd season. He's actually been a net negative for St. Louis so far. That could turn around a bit with an improved run game if Steven Jackson is healthy this week.